What now for Asia after Trump's tariffs struck down?

 

Asia Faces Trade Uncertainty After US Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs

Key Asian trading partners are grappling with fresh uncertainty after the US Supreme Court ruled that many of the tariffs introduced by former President Donald Trump in 2025 are illegal.

Following the ruling on Friday, Trump announced plans to impose a new 15% global levy on goods entering the US. Meanwhile, US customs said it would halt collection of tariffs tied to the original “Liberation Day” trade policy, a move that had triggered a global trade dispute.

The ruling represents a significant setback for governments from India to Indonesia, which had spent months negotiating trade deals with Washington, often pledging billions of dollars in investment. While the new flat rate appears lower for some nations, analysts warn that major uncertainties remain.

"Even if countries decide to negotiate, the current US administration is still likely to enforce higher tariffs regardless of the measures that have been struck down," said Adam Samdin of Oxford Economics. He noted that recent trade deals with the US are not traditional, legally binding agreements, leaving room for further changes.

Smaller Asian economies are particularly cautious, as their outcomes will depend heavily on their relationship with Washington. China, preparing to host Trump in early April, said it is conducting a “comprehensive assessment” of the ruling. A Ministry of Commerce spokesperson reiterated opposition to unilateral tariffs, warning that trade wars and protectionism have no winners.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer downplayed the impact on ongoing talks with China, saying the focus of the upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping is maintaining stability and ensuring China meets its existing commitments, including purchasing American agricultural products and Boeing aircraft.

Other US allies in Asia are also weighing their next steps. Japan said it will carefully examine the ruling and Washington’s response, while some officials expressed concern that new tariffs could drive countries to distance themselves from the US. South Korea is uncertain about potential refunds for tariffs already paid, and clarified that computer chips are not affected. Taiwan and Singapore are monitoring the situation closely and maintaining communication with US authorities.

Many Asian countries, whose economies rely heavily on exports to the US, were especially hard hit by Trump’s sweeping 2025 tariffs. Last week, Indonesia secured a reduction in US tariffs from 32% to 19% in exchange for preferential access to its market, while Taiwan obtained a 15% rate alongside commitments for investment. Japan also reached an agreement to accelerate rare earth production with the US, aiming to reduce reliance on China.

Despite the upheaval, Greer said the US is maintaining dialogue with countries that had reached trade deals under Trump, and none have indicated plans to withdraw agreements following the court ruling. Analysts warn, however, that a flat 15% tariff could still hit exporters of finished goods across Asia the hardest.